Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 1.911806 2.018264 2.129710 2.255466 2.393896 2.542174 2.713733
2025-07-13 1.772715 1.923051 2.087790 2.283159 2.510466 2.769046 3.089079
2025-07-20 1.689901 1.868289 2.070195 2.318508 2.619802 2.979216 3.449516
2025-07-27 1.629631 1.829096 2.060830 2.354535 2.723877 3.183257 3.815795
2025-08-03 1.556558 1.767192 2.016834 2.340755 2.759887 3.299377 4.075096
2025-08-10 1.494035 1.712746 1.976421 2.325598 2.788972 3.404235 4.325438
2025-08-17 1.435888 1.659632 1.933313 2.302173 2.802633 3.485892 4.547762
2025-08-24 1.383851 1.611005 1.892429 2.277717 2.811061 3.558153 4.760946
2025-08-31 1.348157 1.580911 1.873053 2.279537 2.854159 3.681415 5.065767
2025-09-07 1.320352 1.559281 1.863011 2.292425 2.912377 3.830233 5.429936
2025-09-14 1.277678 1.516458 1.822760 2.260818 2.903024 3.873768 5.618769
2025-09-21 1.237477 1.475296 1.782838 2.227240 2.887892 3.905797 5.789595
2025-09-28 1.194238 1.429238 1.735272 2.181509 2.853092 3.905663 5.905934
2025-10-05 1.179421 1.420352 1.737716 2.207396 2.928863 4.092726 6.408477
2025-10-12 1.168248 1.415707 1.745431 2.240820 3.017969 4.310285 7.013345
2025-10-19 1.157966 1.411712 1.753591 2.274876 3.109931 4.541948 7.698748
2025-10-26 1.133221 1.387011 1.731462 2.261851 3.123540 4.632741 8.085637
2025-11-02 1.109486 1.362940 1.709288 2.247523 3.133675 4.717449 8.475884
2025-11-09 1.084640 1.336594 1.682907 2.225371 3.128886 4.772748 8.804702
2025-11-16 1.060759 1.310940 1.656675 2.202237 3.120814 4.820557 9.125097
2025-11-23 1.045357 1.296740 1.646580 2.203958 3.155942 4.957735 9.725524
2025-11-30 1.033696 1.287447 1.643268 2.216151 3.210127 5.139532 10.510843
2025-12-07 1.010778 1.261565 1.614633 2.186245 3.186371 5.154405 10.789977